Transpacific freighter flights still down after CNY

The number of transpacific freighter flights has not yet recovered following the Chinese New Year potentially reflecting the introduction of US tariffs on China and the impact of the short-lived removal of the de minimis exemption.

Figures from Rotate show that two weeks after the end of the Chinese New Year, freighter flights between Asia and the US are “still down” by 13%, or 12 daily flights.

The analyst and consultant said this is the equivalent of 24 freighters now being made available for other markets.

Rotate vice president and head of consulting Tim van Leeuwen said this could reflect the impact of US tariffs on China, although he added that it would have been easier to assess the situation if it had happened outside of the Chinese New Year period and the busy Valentine’s Day season when freighters are redeployed to flower markets.

Drilling down into the figures, network carriers appear to have recovered the fastest with daily flight numbers reaching 45 compared with 47 in the pre-New Year period, the equivalent of two aircraft being removed from the market.

In contrast, charter carriers have seen daily flight numbers drop to 18 compared with 24 in the period before the New Year, representing 12 aircraft. Integrator daily flight numbers are down to 14 from 18, which represents eight aircraft.

“Perhaps the past weeks did give us a glimpse as to what would happen in case of lasting tariffs, with charter carriers reducing flights most (and still down -25%),” said van Leeuwen.

”If only this episode could have happened outside of Chinese New Year and the flower season, that would have made our collective analyses easier.”

It is not just in capacity terms that the market out of Asia is proving difficult to assess. Last week, data firm WorldACD said that demand figures from China to the US in late January and early February had dropped steeply.

The company reported a slew of cancelled e-commerce flights but again said it was difficult to assess how much of this was caused by the New Year and how much is due to tariffs and the de minimis change.

In contrast, airfreight rate figures from TAC Index show that average prices out of Asia to the US had remained firm, although sources indicate that spot rates out of Hong Kong may be facing a bit more pressure this week.